Post by Belouch on Aug 4, 2023 23:47:35 GMT 1
About Faction Balance in Agonia
It's been a while that the Forsaken faction has had a slight numerical advantage in the game. There are several reasons explaining it and although the situation has stabilized, the difference is still not negligible. But it's also not dramatic, and we see sometimes comments on discord or elsewhere which tend to overdramatize, or (less frequently) underestimate the situation. It is understandable as players only see the world of Agonia through the lense of their character and therefore only catch a glimpse of it. Therefore we are making this post to publish some actual data, to give an objective look at the situation, and share our own interpretation of the data (you are free to have your own).
We'll look at four statements that we often hear, and dive into the data to see if they are true or false:
Edit: this analysis was conducted on 4 August and posted only now.
1. "Order are severely outnumbered"
The amount of active chars (meaning they logged on that day) is monitored on a daily basis for both factions.
If we average the numbers for the last 50 days, the result is:
Very interestingly, if we look at days 51-100, the result was 59.2 for Order and 79.2 for Forsaken. This was a 33.7% difference. Meaning that the situation has actually improved in the recent weeks/months. (There has been a few converts which may in part explain that).
We sometimes see statement as crazy as 'Order is outnumbered 2:1', sometimes '3:1'...
I think we can safely say that No, Order is not severely outnumbered.
A 20.6% difference (with an improving trend) is not a severe situation. Is it negligible? Certainly not either. 20% can and does make a difference.
2. "Maybe Order isn't outnumbered by players who log, but they're severely outnumbered in players who PvP"
It is not possible to monitor the level of PvP engagement of factions on a daily basis, but the Horror Hall gives a pretty good indication.
In 2023:
-28 Order killed a total of 186 Settlers
-28 Forsaken killed a total of 178 Settlers
so a perfect tie....
In 2022 (for longer running data):
-39 Order killed a total of 330 Settlers
-42 Forsaken killed a total of 354 Settlers
very tight as well.
Compared to 2021 which was probably the hardest year for Order activity levels:
-33 Order killed a total of 384 Settlers
-48 Forsaken killed a total of 369 Settlers
(These data are public in Stax Facts )
Here the data speaks for itself, and No, the Order is not severely outnumbered in players who PvP. In fact, they are not outnumbered at all in that aspect.
3. "Order have less because they don't take care of their new players".
We looked at the retention rate of characters by amount of turns spent. Up until 3,000 turns (near a month old) or so, there was no significant difference between the factions. In fact, Order had very slightly better one!
The difference in retention rate really shows at 30,000 turns (20% difference), 50,000 turns (50% difference) and worsens after 100,000 turns (62% difference). This suggests that the difference in numbers is due to older players rerolling, converting or quitting the game.
Therefore this statement is false and Order is doing a pretty good job at taking care of their new players.
4. "Active Order players are weaker FP-wise"
Let's look at the FP data. The data presented here was extracted last week (so it's a few days outdated).
The data includes only characters who logged in the last 3 days.
We excluded Free Folks from the analysis as we're only comparing Order and Forsaken.
We are also careful not to reveal too much information about individual players so we will group them, and compare the relative weight of both factions in the top10, top30, etc, faction powers ranking:
Here we see a significantly dispoportionate weight of Forsaken in the top 10 and top 30. Then it even-outs more, with x1.50 in the top50 and x1.38 in the top 100 (still quite significant!).
Therefore, Yes, we can confirm that active Order players are weaker FP-wise.
A few points to note:
To go further in the analysis, we looked at how many of the players were close to hardcap (meaning 5 skills or less from it):
We were quite surprised by these results. While almost all Forsaken players in the top50 are at hardcap, there seems to be a much stronger reticence from Order players to go close to it. But when you know the weight of main skill in the FP calculation (and in your PvP aptitude) you know it can make a huge difference. 2 Orders make it in the top10 even while neglecting their main skill. If the 5 non-capped Orders in the top 30 stop neglecting their main, they would be (at least some of them) in the top 10. Same thing for the 13 Order who make it into the top50 with a poor main skill, many of them would be top 30 if they raised it. It is clear that one of the reason that can explain (at least in a significant way) the gap is a strong reticence from Order players for softcap training.
It's impossible to know what the end result would look like exactly, but if more focus was given to main skill training by active Order players, the disporportion of weight in the top tiers would not be as bad as what it is now.
Main skill is much faster to increase compared to stats, and it has a bigger impact on FP and PvP than stats. A character at hardcap will have close to double the FP of a character at softcap with identical stats. To better illustrate, this could bring you from FP-39 to FP-3!
Another interesting fact is that the average turncount of top50 Forsaken is 145,000 turns, while the average turncount of top50 Order is 114,000. This is a significant difference, which confirms in part our earlier hypothesis about rerolls and converts. But most important this means that Order players are significantly younger than Forsaken, so while they may not like the softcap mechanics, they should rather embrace it as it supported (and probably still does) them in catching up.
Hope you found these data interesting and if you have any other interpretation of them please feel free to share and discuss.
It's been a while that the Forsaken faction has had a slight numerical advantage in the game. There are several reasons explaining it and although the situation has stabilized, the difference is still not negligible. But it's also not dramatic, and we see sometimes comments on discord or elsewhere which tend to overdramatize, or (less frequently) underestimate the situation. It is understandable as players only see the world of Agonia through the lense of their character and therefore only catch a glimpse of it. Therefore we are making this post to publish some actual data, to give an objective look at the situation, and share our own interpretation of the data (you are free to have your own).
We'll look at four statements that we often hear, and dive into the data to see if they are true or false:
- "Order are severly outnumbered"
- "Maybe Order isn't so outnumbered by players, but they're severely outnumbered in players who PvP".
- "Order have less players because they don't take care of their new players".
- "Active Order players are weaker FP-wise"
Edit: this analysis was conducted on 4 August and posted only now.
1. "Order are severely outnumbered"
The amount of active chars (meaning they logged on that day) is monitored on a daily basis for both factions.
If we average the numbers for the last 50 days, the result is:
- 62.5 for Order
- 75.4 for Forsaken
- This is a 20.6% difference
Very interestingly, if we look at days 51-100, the result was 59.2 for Order and 79.2 for Forsaken. This was a 33.7% difference. Meaning that the situation has actually improved in the recent weeks/months. (There has been a few converts which may in part explain that).
We sometimes see statement as crazy as 'Order is outnumbered 2:1', sometimes '3:1'...
I think we can safely say that No, Order is not severely outnumbered.
A 20.6% difference (with an improving trend) is not a severe situation. Is it negligible? Certainly not either. 20% can and does make a difference.
2. "Maybe Order isn't outnumbered by players who log, but they're severely outnumbered in players who PvP"
It is not possible to monitor the level of PvP engagement of factions on a daily basis, but the Horror Hall gives a pretty good indication.
In 2023:
-28 Order killed a total of 186 Settlers
-28 Forsaken killed a total of 178 Settlers
so a perfect tie....
In 2022 (for longer running data):
-39 Order killed a total of 330 Settlers
-42 Forsaken killed a total of 354 Settlers
very tight as well.
Compared to 2021 which was probably the hardest year for Order activity levels:
-33 Order killed a total of 384 Settlers
-48 Forsaken killed a total of 369 Settlers
(These data are public in Stax Facts )
Here the data speaks for itself, and No, the Order is not severely outnumbered in players who PvP. In fact, they are not outnumbered at all in that aspect.
3. "Order have less because they don't take care of their new players".
We looked at the retention rate of characters by amount of turns spent. Up until 3,000 turns (near a month old) or so, there was no significant difference between the factions. In fact, Order had very slightly better one!
The difference in retention rate really shows at 30,000 turns (20% difference), 50,000 turns (50% difference) and worsens after 100,000 turns (62% difference). This suggests that the difference in numbers is due to older players rerolling, converting or quitting the game.
Therefore this statement is false and Order is doing a pretty good job at taking care of their new players.
4. "Active Order players are weaker FP-wise"
Let's look at the FP data. The data presented here was extracted last week (so it's a few days outdated).
The data includes only characters who logged in the last 3 days.
We excluded Free Folks from the analysis as we're only comparing Order and Forsaken.
We are also careful not to reveal too much information about individual players so we will group them, and compare the relative weight of both factions in the top10, top30, etc, faction powers ranking:
- Top 10 FP: 7 Forsaken + 3 Order (x 2.33)
- Top 30 FP: 20 Forsaken + 10 Order (x 2)
- Top 50 FP: 30 Forsaken + 20 Order (x 1.50)
- Top 100 FP: 58 Forsaken + 42 Order (x 1.38)
- Top 139 FP (all 3-day active chars): 76 Forsaken + 63 Order (x 1.21)
Therefore, Yes, we can confirm that active Order players are weaker FP-wise.
A few points to note:
- FP is only an indication, and the Agonia fight mechanics are very RNG-prone. This is not Stax where a top 10 players had 0% chance to win against a top 3 player. In Agonia, we have seen players who were in the top40 beat a player in the top2 in a 1v1. Offline.
- The FP rankings are actually very tight. For example, Top10 is 5,000FP and Top30 is 4,000. FP30 has 35-40% chance to beat FP10 in a 1vs1
To go further in the analysis, we looked at how many of the players were close to hardcap (meaning 5 skills or less from it):
- Top 10 FP: 7/7 Forsaken + 1/3 Order
- Top 30 FP: 19/20 Forsaken + 5/10 Order
- Top 50 FP: 28/30 Forsaken + 7/20 Order
We were quite surprised by these results. While almost all Forsaken players in the top50 are at hardcap, there seems to be a much stronger reticence from Order players to go close to it. But when you know the weight of main skill in the FP calculation (and in your PvP aptitude) you know it can make a huge difference. 2 Orders make it in the top10 even while neglecting their main skill. If the 5 non-capped Orders in the top 30 stop neglecting their main, they would be (at least some of them) in the top 10. Same thing for the 13 Order who make it into the top50 with a poor main skill, many of them would be top 30 if they raised it. It is clear that one of the reason that can explain (at least in a significant way) the gap is a strong reticence from Order players for softcap training.
It's impossible to know what the end result would look like exactly, but if more focus was given to main skill training by active Order players, the disporportion of weight in the top tiers would not be as bad as what it is now.
Main skill is much faster to increase compared to stats, and it has a bigger impact on FP and PvP than stats. A character at hardcap will have close to double the FP of a character at softcap with identical stats. To better illustrate, this could bring you from FP-39 to FP-3!
Another interesting fact is that the average turncount of top50 Forsaken is 145,000 turns, while the average turncount of top50 Order is 114,000. This is a significant difference, which confirms in part our earlier hypothesis about rerolls and converts. But most important this means that Order players are significantly younger than Forsaken, so while they may not like the softcap mechanics, they should rather embrace it as it supported (and probably still does) them in catching up.
Hope you found these data interesting and if you have any other interpretation of them please feel free to share and discuss.
again 
only joking, what i got from this is that I was depressed for no reason at the amount of inactive freefolk... we doing better than the factions at least